fine-dining-guide.com | Editorial | Gastropubs, June 2004

It does, at first sight, look like a natural and
uniquely British mixture - pubs diversifying
upwards and gastronomy diversifying
downwards. Mr Middleton is no longer
satisfied with pub grub but getting dressed up
on a week night is too much hassle and
maybe just outside his price point.

Cultural shift is strong language however. It
presumes that behavior goes beyond a
function of circumstance and opportunity.

For example, would the gastropub survive in
different economic circumstances; consider a
significant downturn - as happened when the
boom bubble burst in the late 1980s. Property
prices slumped and the cost of (borrowing)
money became considerably more expensive,
there were also added pressures on
employment.

In this situation, the number of Mr Middletons
shrinks as does their disposable income. On
the supply side, new gastronomic chefs face
barriers to entry into the market due to the
increased cost of mortgages, negative equity
and the prospect of diminishing demand.

As with any economic cycle, it is the
institutions which survive while the small
players turn over at a rapid rate. The middle
market either fails or re-invents itself.

So what of gastro pubs? To argue against the
case of economics we must ask: are Mr
Middleton's tastes, priorities and
requirements changed for good, such that the
gastro pub will permanently be on his
agenda? Will the number of new, able, young
and talented chefs continue to emerge and
need a low cost home?

For a genuine cultural shift to be the case
we'd have to accept that the British perception
of food is moving inexorably toward our
continental neighbours.
Through boom and slump alike, the French
have enjoyed gastro style food in simple, low
cost establishments for generations. We may
romantically conjecture that Mr Middleton will
cast aside the junk mail and Domino speed
dial for good, in favour of the British equivalent
- The gastro pub.

While this appears a relatively unlikely
scenario, the middle classes are
considerably better informed, travelled and
educated than ever before; some time ago I
bumped into an old university friend and his
wife at an airport, they were busy feeding their
four year old her breakfast - filter coffee and
Pain au Chocolat - not something they would
have experienced at the same age.

No doubt there exists a Mr Middleton
somewhere, who will pay the £3000 top up
fee to fund his son through an Economics
degree and just maybe his final year
Econometrics project will be to model the
market for gastropubs.

I wonder, will the next generation of
Middletons be any the wiser?

Gastropub: Cultural Shift or Question of
Economics. July '04
In the mid 1980s I undertook an
Econometrics project into the demand for
coal. Seemed a good idea at the time.

We lived in boom times, or at least the
expanding middle classes lived in boom
times; their property was soaring in value,
inflation was under control, salaries rising,
the new tertiary sector blossoming.
Culturally we were work hard, play hard kick
ass American, well mid-Atlantic at least!

For centuries economists have contested
whether supply creates its own demand or
vice versa, one thing that's always been
certain; where the two marry up we see the
most stable markets.

I've seen it argued on learned foodie forums
on the internet that the gastro pub is the
ushering of a new culture in fine dining in
Britain; that the demand from a growing
number for gastronomic food in simple, laid
back surroundings, at a reasonable price,
has prompted this revolution.

There's some weight to this argument. To
borrow a character from Jilly Cooper's
amusing (but dated) book Class, Mr
Middleton of the middle middle classes has
considerably more disposable income that
he did twenty years ago. In fact there are
now many more Mr Middletons, they work
even harder, longer hours, are better
educated and are more demanding in their
choices.

At the same time there has been widespread
recognition in the market that Mr Middleton
has far less free time in modern Britain.
Supermarket shelves are stacked with
pre-prepared meals, while 30% of junk mail
is from takeaway restaurants. He is also
guided by the near blanket media coverage
of chefs and food and how he can most
conveniently 'consume' in line with his
lifestyle aspirations. No doubt the current
abundance and variety of all types of
restaurants found today may be attributed to
these facts.

On the supply side, aspiring chefs are faced
with a tough choice. Mr Middleton affords
them a business opportunity, however the
soaring property market makes it painfully
difficult for them to set up without being
slaves to a financial master. So what is the
answer? Keep overheads and front of house
costs down, keep it simple, encourage a
local market mentality - The gastropub. Hey
presto, a natural marriage of demand and
supply. But are gastro pubs the natural long
term meeting place for these buyers and
sellers? Do we have a long standing market
that one might argue is symbolic of a cultural
shift?